Sunday, December 9, 2012

Welcome Stranger

Since reaching voting age in 1952 I have seen a few elections that left no doubt as to which party was the winner, in Congress and the presidency when both were at stake. One of them took place that year. Riding Ike’s coattails Republicans took the whole ball of wax, with the exception of losing Henry Cabot Lodge’s Senate seat to a young fellow named John Kennedy. The next watershed year was 1964 when Lyndon Johnson was elected by the largest percentage in history and carried with him enough Congressional votes to pass Medicare and Civil rights legislation. 1980 brought us Ronald Reagan, a Republican Senate and a casino mentality to the economy that persists to this day. “The Gipper” left his party armed with the image of a “welfare queen” and “strapping young buck,” helping Gingrich in his 1994 “contract with America” that regained much of the lost ground Bill Clinton had recovered. The intervals between these four elections were twelve, sixteen and twelve years respectively.

For those who haven’t noticed, every election since 2006 has been of this sea change variety, with major Democratic gains in 2006, 2008 and this year, interrupted by the Tea Party conquest in 2010. It has clearly been a more volatile electorate for the past six years than the preceding fifty four. I don’t know what this augurs, but as a registered Democrat I’m of course pleased that we are three for four, particularly so about the fourth.

I think we can expect a more liberal approach to immigration by Republicans. The restrictive policies that the honchos allowed in the party platform this year were a sop to the Tea Party which cost them dearly. This issue was not a party favorite to begin with. It was none other than W who advocated easing immigration restrictions, either out of “compassionate conservatism” or a fondness for cheap labor, take your pick. In either case this is a mistake the establishment won’t make again. Remember Romney in a debate accusing Texas Governor Perry of being lax on immigration? As a personification of things Republican the man was lying through his teeth.

There may be much to be read into the recent election about the long term place of the Republican Party in American politics. But I’ll abstain for the time being because I’m a bit gun shy about making forecasts. When I confidently predicted that the party establishment would force Todd Akin out of the Missouri Senate race my crystal ball was in the repair shop. But you should eventually anticipate hearing from me on this subject because I’m expecting it back any year now.

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