Down to the Wire

When it comes to predictions my record leaves something to be desired. In l954 I bet that the Cleveland Indians would beat the N.Y. Giants in six games or less. The Giants won in four. In 1982 I was offering odds that Ronald Reagan, in view of the economy and possible retirement because of his age and health, would not be reelected. So my prediction that what’s left of the health bill will become law shouldn’t give much comfort those who feel as I do.

“Free” votes have always been plentiful in Congress. An example is Alphonse D’Amato’s on a minimum wage bill which had been generally accepted in each chamber, but which the Republicans were trying to amend by adding six months of employment as a requisite. Firing employees before their six months and then rehiring them is too obvious a gimmick to even be called a loophole.  D’Amato voted with the Democrats and his constituency rather than his party because Republicans knew the amendment was a goner however he voted and saw no need for him to take one for the party.

The head count on the health care bill is close enough to conclude that there will be few, if any, free votes. It’s reminiscent of Clinton’s l993 budget which raised taxes minimally on upper income and passed each House of Congress by one vote. Coincidentally, as Republicans have claimed, it was followed by seven years of relative prosperity. Even allowing that the vote was expected to be close, the mathematical odds against such an outcome are immense, in the absence of external manipulation. I’ve already written about the House vote of Marjorie Mezvinsky, a former local New York City NBC TV reporter and a Democrat representing a traditionally Republican district in Pennsylvania. She took one for the party, saving the day by voting for the bill, later losing reelection. She wasn’t alone.

In the coming health care vote I believe there are Democrats who will to take one for the party. Their counterparts in 1994 were defeated en masse, in spite of many having opposed Clinton’s health care bill. There is something to be said for the conclusion that if you have to go down it’s best to do it in style.  The screws have been tightened by the insurance crowd for some time. Blue dog Democrats are belatedly getting proper pressure from their party. Those who survive this election might appreciate good committee positions. While I hesitate to mention it, there is always that pesky matter of principle.

In conclusion I assume no responsibility for anybody losing a bet based on this prediction, even if you claim to have intended to share your winnings with me.